Harris vs. Trump latest presidential polls: 3 new surveys confirm lead is widening
And post-convention bounce hasn't been accounted for yet
Vice President Kamala Harris (D) has widened her national lead over former President Donald Trump (R).
Activote, which polled from Aug. 15-23, shows Harris with a 5-point lead. Angus Reid Global, which polled from Aug. 19-23, gives Harris the same 5-point edge. Fairleigh Dickinson University's latest poll, conducted from Aug. 16-20, awards Harris a 7-point national lead.
In key swing states, the New York Times' tracker breaks down the election as follows:
National average: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
Michigan: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Pennsylvania: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
Arizona: Harris 47%, Trump 47%
Georgia: Trump 50%, Harris 46%
The Times joined polling site FiveThirtyEight in its analysis that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy's withdrawal and endorsement of Trump would have little effect on the race. Said the Times: "... his decision may not affect the race dramatically: Kennedy's support had already waned, his supporters were less likely to say they would vote come November, and recent polls disagreed on whether he was drawing more votes from Trump or Kamala Harris."
The last polling with Kennedy still in the race and drawing only 4% of voters showed Harris with a 46-44% advantage over Trump.
In the most recent polls from "select pollsters" that the New York Times says "meet certain criteria for reliability," Harris' leads are strengthening.
Emerson College (Aug. 20-22): Harris +7%
Fairleigh Dickinson (Aug. 17-20): Harris +7%
University of Vermont (Aug. 15-19) state polling:
Maine: Harris +17%
New Hampshire: Harris +5%
Vermont: Harris +41%
Five weeks ago, when President Joe Biden left the race, the New York Times' national average gave Trump a 3-point edge. Harris has flipped the race and now has a 3-point edge. Biden also was down 4 or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Non-partisan Angus Reid Global said, "New data taken during the Democratic National Convention ... finds Kamala Harris extending her national lead over Donald Trump among registered voters. The current vice president has a base built of support from 18- to 34-year-olds (59% Harris to 30% Trump), Blacks (67% to 16%), and Hispanics (57% to 33%). Trump, meanwhile, is the preferred choice among those older than 54 (49% to 40%) and whites (51% to 39%)."
FDU says Harris' support is strongly tied to sex and gender: "When voters are thinking about race or sex, Trump's support just plummets. All the time, we hear strategists and pundits saying that Democratic candidates shouldn't talk about identity, but these results show that making race and sex salient to voters is bad for Trump and boosts Harris."
According to Activote: "Trump leads among rural voters, but Harris leads by a wider margin among urban voters and also has a small lead among suburbanites. Harris leads among the youngest and oldest voters, while Trump narrowly leads among the 30-64 year olds.
"Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both lead comfortably among their respective parties, while Harris has a small lead among independents. Trump leads among Whites, while Harris leads among Blacks and Latinos.
Activote, which polled from Aug. 15-23, shows Harris with a 5-point lead. Angus Reid Global, which polled from Aug. 19-23, gives Harris the same 5-point edge. Fairleigh Dickinson University's latest poll, conducted from Aug. 16-20, awards Harris a 7-point national lead.
In key swing states, the New York Times' tracker breaks down the election as follows:
National average: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
Michigan: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Pennsylvania: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
Arizona: Harris 47%, Trump 47%
Georgia: Trump 50%, Harris 46%
The Times joined polling site FiveThirtyEight in its analysis that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy's withdrawal and endorsement of Trump would have little effect on the race. Said the Times: "... his decision may not affect the race dramatically: Kennedy's support had already waned, his supporters were less likely to say they would vote come November, and recent polls disagreed on whether he was drawing more votes from Trump or Kamala Harris."
The last polling with Kennedy still in the race and drawing only 4% of voters showed Harris with a 46-44% advantage over Trump.
In the most recent polls from "select pollsters" that the New York Times says "meet certain criteria for reliability," Harris' leads are strengthening.
Emerson College (Aug. 20-22): Harris +7%
Fairleigh Dickinson (Aug. 17-20): Harris +7%
University of Vermont (Aug. 15-19) state polling:
Maine: Harris +17%
New Hampshire: Harris +5%
Vermont: Harris +41%
Five weeks ago, when President Joe Biden left the race, the New York Times' national average gave Trump a 3-point edge. Harris has flipped the race and now has a 3-point edge. Biden also was down 4 or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Non-partisan Angus Reid Global said, "New data taken during the Democratic National Convention ... finds Kamala Harris extending her national lead over Donald Trump among registered voters. The current vice president has a base built of support from 18- to 34-year-olds (59% Harris to 30% Trump), Blacks (67% to 16%), and Hispanics (57% to 33%). Trump, meanwhile, is the preferred choice among those older than 54 (49% to 40%) and whites (51% to 39%)."
FDU says Harris' support is strongly tied to sex and gender: "When voters are thinking about race or sex, Trump's support just plummets. All the time, we hear strategists and pundits saying that Democratic candidates shouldn't talk about identity, but these results show that making race and sex salient to voters is bad for Trump and boosts Harris."
According to Activote: "Trump leads among rural voters, but Harris leads by a wider margin among urban voters and also has a small lead among suburbanites. Harris leads among the youngest and oldest voters, while Trump narrowly leads among the 30-64 year olds.
"Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both lead comfortably among their respective parties, while Harris has a small lead among independents. Trump leads among Whites, while Harris leads among Blacks and Latinos.